Photo: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The Carolinas are experiencing heavy rainfall and gusty winds as a system that could potentially become Tropical Storm Helene draws closer to the South Carolina coast. As of Monday (September 16) morning, the system was approximately 100 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina, with tropical storm-force winds of 50 mph. Tropical storm warnings are currently in effect for the coastal Carolinas.
The system, currently referred to as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, has not yet organized enough to be classified as a tropical or subtropical storm. However, it still has a medium chance of doing so before making landfall Monday afternoon.
The system's center, typically where its strongest winds and heaviest rain occur, is poorly defined. Most of the system’s heaviest rain and gusty winds are far removed from its center, according to satellite imagery. This means that while the system will likely make landfall in South Carolina, between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, southern North Carolina will endure most of its significant impacts.
Flooding rain is expected to be the storm’s most significant threat. Areas near the North Carolina-South Carolina border, including Wilmington, North Carolina, are under a level three of four risk of flooding rainfall Monday, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Widespread rainfall totals of four to eight inches are expected to drench these areas through Monday night, with totals potentially reaching double digits for parts of extreme southern North Carolina.
In addition to heavy rain, this system could also produce a few tornadoes in eastern North Carolina on Monday. Up to three feet of storm surge is possible from the northern South Carolina coast into southern portions of North Carolina’s Outer Banks through landfall Monday afternoon. The system’s winds will deteriorate quickly as it moves inland over South Carolina late Monday and Monday night. Rain will continue over parts of the Carolinas and reach more of the mid-Atlantic Tuesday, but the system is expected to dissipate by midweek.
If this system manages to become a named storm Monday, it’ll be the first named storm to make landfall in South Carolina since Ian came ashore as a Category 1 hurricane in 2022 and the fourth named storm to make landfall in the US this hurricane season.