Two University of Hawaii scientists are warning a warm-water mass churning across the tropical Pacific could bring El Nino conditions by the end of the year. Axel Timmermann, a professor of oceanography with the International Pacific Research Center, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser he believes there's an 80 percent chance a big El Nino will develop. Fei-Fei Jin, a UH professor of meteorology, agrees with Timmermann's assessment. However, a more conservative prediction comes from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, based in College Park, Maryland. The center says the chances of an El Nino developing will top 50-50 by summer. In Hawaii the results could mean a dry winter and wet summer.